Gen Z Uncowed

Since last year’s massive Gen Z protest movement forced Kenyan President Ruto to blink, withdrawing an unpopular Finance Bill and reshuffling his cabinet, Ruto has followed an old playbook in Kenyan politics, mixing incentives for a few with the prospect of brutality for many to tamp down discontent. Kenyans have experienced a wave of violence and intimidation intended to ensure that authority is not effectively challenged again. Activists were targeted for extrajudicial abductions and interrogations. Enforcers-for-hire, or “goons” have deployed en masse with clubs and whips to confront peaceful demonstrators. Combined with canny efforts to co-opt former adversaries from longtime opposition leader Raila Odinga to some prominent figures from last year’s protests, the state had tried to wrest control of Kenya’s political narrative back from its citizens.

It's not working. Kenyans are refusing to cower in fear; instead, they are demonstrating in outrage. High-profile instances of police brutality, like the violent death of teacher and activist Albert Ojwang in police custody, and the close-range shooting of an unarmed street vendor that was captured on camera, have only served to underscore the popular sense that the political class is interested in protecting and serving itself, not the citizens. At least eight people were killed on June 25 as demonstrators clashed with police reportedly firing live ammunition. A government directive to media outlets demanding that they stop live coverage of the protests is telling—if they cannot control the narrative, they wish to conceal it.

In recent days, Kenya’s Interior Minister has suggested that protesters are merely interested in chaos, and that their grievances are fabricated. But the latest demonstration was long-planned to commemorate the scores of protesters killed last year—hardly a fabricated agenda. What unites the protesters is a demand for change. They want an end to impunity and corruption. They want more economic opportunity. They want the old Kenyan political playbook to be cast aside in favor of something new. That last aspiration puts young Kenyans in direct opposition to their political leadership. President Ruto will likely do whatever it takes to secure reelection. But his vision for the future appears to be irreconcilable with that of Kenya’s young, civically engaged citizens.

For observers who tend to see developments in Africa through the lens of geopolitics, Kenya’s turmoil is instructive. Neither Ruto’s close relationship with the United States during the Biden era, nor his warm relationship with China nor support from the United Arab Emirates will be decisive in setting Kenya’s course for the future. The truly consequential actors are the Kenyan people themselves.